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Indian rice exports to Iran stalled after US-Iran tensions rose following the killing of General Soleimani. A shipment of hundreds of containers was stopped at Mundra port in Gujarat, and exporters have halted the second shipment.
Iran is a major buyer of Indian basmati, so the halted shipments remove a large export outlet and weigh on basmati prices.
After 13 past bearish geopolitics events, Rough Rice moved a median +2.0% over 5 sessions (77% higher; middle half +0.6% to +3.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.