US milled rice exports to Haiti are falling as gang violence and a blockade of the main fuel terminal disrupt port operations. USDA data show the MY 2022-23 export commitment to Haiti down 48% year on year, while US #2 4% broken white rice reached an all-time high.
Port disruption and inflated freight costs reduce US demand from a core Caribbean market, which can pressure US rice sales and shift Haitian buyers toward other origins.
After 13 past bearish geopolitics events, Rough Rice moved a median +2.0% over 5 sessions (77% higher; middle half +0.6% to +3.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Record-high US #2 4% broken white rice prices reflect tight US supply and firm export pricing, which is consistent with US rough rice strength, though falling Haiti demand is a partial offset.