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CRU Group forecasts that Chinese NPK exports, which rose nearly fivefold in 2019 after export taxes were removed, will keep growing in 2020 but at a slower pace. Growth into Myanmar and the Philippines is expected to ease as Yara and other producers compete harder.
Slower Chinese NPK export growth reduces supply pressure on the phosphate complex, which limits downside for DAP prices.
After 38 past neutral report events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.6%), and +3.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.