The US Commerce Department issued a preliminary decision that would nearly eliminate countervailing duties on Argentine biodiesel, cutting rates from an average of 72% to about 10% after finding Argentina's export tax changes removed subsidies. Antidumping duties of about 75% would be unchanged.
The National Biodiesel Board criticized the proposal as harmful to US biodiesel producers and soybean farmers.
Lower duties on Argentine biodiesel would increase import competition for US producers, potentially reducing domestic soybean oil crush demand and weighing on soybean oil prices.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.