US renewable diesel output in January fell 6.3% year on year to about 215.66 million gallons, while exports rose 95% to 31.8 million gallons, mostly to the Netherlands. Used cooking oil imports rose 13.3%, and producers are scaling back or switching to fossil diesel amid tax credit changes and trade tensions.
Lower domestic renewable diesel output and weaker feedstock use reduce demand for soybean oil, which is bearish for oil and related feedstock prices.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.