Trade aid helped the past 2 years, but what about 2020?

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Aug 1, 2018The bean at the heart of America's trade war-1.6%
• Jan 16, 2020What is the toll of trade wars on U.S. agriculture? | PBS News-2.1%
• Aug 1, 2018Why Soybeans Are at the Heart of the U.S.-China Trade War-1.6%
• Jun 2, 2019Crude posts worst May in seven years as trade-war anxiety builds-2.4%
• May 14, 2024What the US-China trade looks like by sector | Reuters+3.5%

After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jun 2, 2019Crude posts worst May in seven years as trade-war anxiety builds-1.9%
• Oct 3, 2018Is the corn market about to feel a soybean trade war hangover?-1.7%
• Jul 20, 2021The Trans-Pacific Trade War Is Heating Up Again — Breakwave Advisors-1.1%
• Aug 12, 2021The Times podcast: Get out of here with that corn - Los Angeles Times+0.7%
• May 23, 2019Farm groups cheer aid, but want end to trade war | 2019-05-23 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+3.7%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.