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Southern and southwest Brazil have had limited rain, and expected rainfall over two weeks may not fully restore soil moisture. Frequent rain is forecast for northern and eastern Brazil and most of Argentina, while U.S. Grain Belt soils remain saturated with rivers near flood levels.
Dry southern Brazil and wet U.S. fields both raise supply risk for corn and soybeans, supporting prices. Flood-driven prevented planting in the U.S. would be a larger bullish factor if heavy rain arrives in April.
mckeany-flavell.comPeter ChurchMar 19, 2020After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
