USDA cut its 2019/20 Brazilian soybean crop forecast by 1.5 million tonnes to 124.5 million, though yields are record in several states and the crop remains the country's largest ever. Labor and transport disruptions are complicating South American soybean shipments, while exports in March reached a record 11.6 million tonnes.
Brazil's large crop and strong export pace keep global soybean supply ample, while transport bottlenecks could delay shipments and shift timing of supply into Asian markets.
After 230 past neutral logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 48 past neutral logistics events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.