
USDA Agricultural Marketing Service analysis shows transport costs for U.S. and Brazilian soybean exports rose from Q2 to Q3 2025, driven mainly by higher barge and ocean freight. Low Mississippi River water levels and firm ocean demand lifted U.S. barge rates, while Brazil's truck and ocean costs also climbed, with transport reaching up to 27% of Brazil's landed cost into China.
Higher freight narrows the margin advantage of exporters and shifts landed-cost competitiveness between U.S. and Brazilian soybeans into China, supporting soybean and meal prices at origin where freight is elevated.
After 206 past bullish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 48 past neutral logistics events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.