Mississippi River closures this spring bottlenecked corn and soybean shipments and pushed export premiums sharply higher. Corn export premiums have since fallen, but soybean premiums remain about 30% above normal for this time of year.
Soybean export premiums staying elevated signal that logistics constraints are still tightening soybean supply to export buyers. Corn premiums falling reflects easing congestion, which weighs on corn basis.
After 206 past bullish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.