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The Mississippi River at Memphis was minus 4.58 feet on Aug. 28, with St. Louis at minus 1.02 feet and forecast to fall to minus 3.3 feet by Sept.
1. Safety restrictions are in place, barge drafts are cut to 10 feet 6 inches, and some tow sizes are reduced.
Reduced drafts and tow sizes raise per-ton freight costs, with barge bids rising to 775-850% of tariff. Higher freight weakens basis for interior grain and may limit export flows during harvest.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On Aug 28 St. Louis gauge was below zero and forecast to fall to -3.3 ft, with draft and tow-size restrictions cutting barge capacity, which supports a sharp jump in St. Louis freight.
