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The Mississippi River navigation pinch point has moved from Memphis to St. Louis as the Army Corps of Engineers reduces flows from Missouri River dams. New Orleans grain terminals reported a 35% increase in barges unloaded week over week.
Spot barge rates have fallen from about $110 a metric ton in October to nearly $40.
Lower barge rates reduce the freight cost burden on Gulf-bound grain, which narrows the basis discount for lower-river farmers. Ongoing shallow water near St. Louis still constrains movements.
After 206 past bullish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
