
Heavy rain in the central U.S. from Feb. 19-21 raised water levels on the Illinois River, and the Army Corps closed several locks to navigation.
CBOT declared force majeure on Feb. 22 because many Illinois River corn load-out stations could not operate.
Closed locks stop barge loading and movement, which tightens nearby corn supply for March delivery and lifts barge freight costs. Buyers in the Illinois corridor may face higher basis and freight prices until water levels drop.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.