Russia's agriculture ministry cut its 2020/21 total grain harvest forecast to 120 Mt, down 5.3 Mt, citing dry weather in key regions. UK new-crop wheat rose on the day, and US soybean futures climbed to a one-week high.
A smaller Russian crop tightens global wheat supply and supports feed wheat prices, while lower UK feed demand is a counterweight.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.