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CBH Group expects steady to firm Australian wheat, barley and canola markets into harvest. Smaller EU crops, down about 18Mt, and a Black Sea crop down 3-4Mt are tightening global supply.
Russia's larger crop is mostly far north of Black Sea ports, which limits its export competitiveness.
Lower EU and Black Sea output increases demand for Australian wheat and barley during the December to June shipping window, supporting export values. Barley's upside is capped somewhat by competition from corn in feed markets.
graincentral.comLiz WellsOct 19, 2020After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
CBH on the day flagged smaller EU and Black Sea crops tightening global supply, a firm supply-side signal consistent with a sharp barley price rise.
