China may buy less American farm products if U.S. issues severe HK response: sources

After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2026China Promised to Buy More U.S. Farm Goods. It Hasn’t Happened.+0.3%
• Apr 1, 2025Trump's China tariffs trigger retaliation against U.S. farm products-3.1%
• Aug 11, 2018China says U.S. farmers may never regain market share lost in trade war - POLITICO+4.2%
• Nov 14, 2025Doubts Arise Over China's commitment to buy American soybeans afer USDA Report | AP News-0.8%
• Jul 11, 2025China’s feed production rises, soybean meal consumption falls+0.9%

After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jul 19, 2021US revives WTO grain import quota case as China lags behind in commitments to buy American farm goods | South China Morning Post-1.1%
• Oct 1, 2026China Promised to Buy More U.S. Farm Goods. It Hasn’t Happened.-1.2%
• Apr 1, 2025Trump's China tariffs trigger retaliation against U.S. farm products+1.0%
• Dec 4, 2017China Continues to Drive Sorghum Acreage and Consumption | Farm Bureau Intel Markets | American Farm Bureau Federation+0.1%
• Jun 22, 2022Chinese Farmers Bought More US Sorghum in May Amid Wheat, Corn Price Hikes+1.4%