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China retaliated against US tariffs with duties on US farm products, after China had already shifted soybean purchases toward Brazil. About half of US soybean exports went to China in 2024, worth $12.8 billion.
US corn exports to China fell sharply in 2024 as Chinese domestic production rose and Brazil overtook the US as the top supplier.
China's declining reliance on US soybeans and corn reduces the value of US export demand and leaves US prices more exposed to tariff-driven shifts. Brazilian supply continues to gain share in China's feed grain and oilseed imports.
reuters.comMei Mei ChuApr 1, 2025After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Background on China's retaliation against US farm goods and the heavy reliance of US soybean exports on China (about half), which makes the demand-loss risk large.
