
China retaliated against new US tariffs with 15% duties on certain US agricultural imports, including chicken, corn, cotton and wheat, and a 10% levy on soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef and other goods. Beijing also placed US firms on export control and unreliable entity lists.
Tariffs on US grains, soybeans and sorghum make US supplies less competitive in China, pushing prices down for US exporters and shifting demand to Brazil.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.