
ADM Oilseeds says EU rapeseed output has fallen nearly 30% in five seasons, with the EU crop expected below 17 million tonnes and UK production possibly under 1 million tonnes, the lowest since 1989. Biodiesel mandates absorb over 65% of EU rape oil, and UK rapeseed prices are at a six-year high for August.
Shrinking EU and UK rapeseed supply, backed by mandated biodiesel demand, supports rapeseed and vegetable oil prices and increases reliance on imports, which lifts import parity prices for meal.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 149 past bullish report events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.