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Commentary says the US-China phase one deal is viewed by some analysts as politically motivated ahead of the 2020 election, following John Bolton's memoir criticism. Soybean oil showed sharp declines early in the week while the IGC raised its 2020/21 world soybean production estimate by over 1 million tonnes to a record 364 million tonnes.
A record world soybean crop and expected higher trade volumes add supply pressure, which weighs on soybean oil and soymeal prices for feed buyers. Trade deal uncertainty adds some downside risk to US soybean demand from China.
mundus-agri.euJun 29, 2020After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
