USDA preliminary data showed February milk output at 17.63 billion pounds, down 1.5% year over year but up about 2.0% after adjusting for leap day. January output was revised up to a 2.4% gain, and the cow herd rose for an eighth straight month to 9.46 million head.
Persistent herd growth and higher output per cow add to milk supply, which is bearish for dairy prices and dairy-based feed demand. The upward January revision adds to the supply picture.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.