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USDA data showed US milk output in September rose 1.3% from a year earlier even though the dairy herd fell to 9.31 million cows, its smallest since early 2016. Producers are gaining output through higher milk per cow, and cheese block prices have been volatile.
Stronger-than-expected milk production adds supply that can cap milk price gains, although a smaller herd limits the size of that effect.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.