
Federal Reserve officials face a resurgent coronavirus wave and mounting risks to the economic recovery. Policymakers may signal a shift in how they view the inflation target or set explicit goals for unemployment or inflation before raising rates from near zero.
Expectations of prolonged low rates and tolerance for higher inflation tend to weaken the dollar and support hard-asset prices, while virus-driven demand risk limits energy and livestock demand.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.