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ING expects the Federal Reserve to deliver a final 25bp hike at its May 3 meeting, as banking stress tightens lending conditions. The bank says the need for higher rates is questionable and forecasts 100bp of cuts before year-end.
The preview cites an unemployment rate of 3.5% and a strong first-quarter consumer spending reading.
Expectations of an end to hikes and future cuts point to a weaker dollar and firmer risk appetite, which typically supports dollar-denominated commodity prices.
think.ing.comJames Knightley, Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Chris TurnerApr 28, 2023After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
