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ING expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points and signal further tightening, while the Ukraine conflict adds uncertainty. Russia and Ukraine resumed peace talks, lifting hopes of de-escalation and weakening the dollar, while the yuan recovered on reports Saudi Arabia may accept yuan for crude.
A weaker dollar on de-escalation hopes tends to support dollar-priced commodities, while Fed tightening is largely priced in.
think.ing.comFrancesco Pesole, Chris TurnerMar 16, 2022After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 362 past bearish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
