
Chinese importers have begun washing out Argentine soybean oil contracts, cancelling prior purchases and switching to cheaper Black Sea sunflower oil. Argentine soy oil fell to $716/t FOB on August 12, the lowest daily value in five months.
India also cancelled a 60,000-tonne purchase.
Cancelled Argentine soy oil demand and substitution by cheaper sunflower oil weigh on soybean oil export values and the vegetable oil complex, with bearish implications for Argentine soy oil and related meal margins.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.