
The USDA raised US corn yield to a record 181.5 bu/acre and soybean yield to 53.3 bu/acre, both above market expectations. CBOT futures reacted with a bounce despite the bearish numbers.
Corn carryout rose about 4% to 2.756 billion bushels.
Bigger US yields and carryout stocks weigh on feed grain and soymeal prices, though the friendly market reaction shows some buying support.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Describes a bullish market reaction despite bearish USDA numbers, consistent with a short-covering rally in soybean products.