OPEC+ needs to fix daily oversupply of more than 2 MM barrels

After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.

• Dec 6, 2019OPEC, allies to lower oil output 500,000 barrels more+1.4%
• Jul 29, 2022Oil up over $2 per barrel as hopes fade for OPEC+ supply boost | Reuters-11.4%
• Nov 4, 2021Opec+ to increase output by 400,000 bpd despite US pressure for more oil supply | The National+1.5%
• Jun 28, 2019Arab News | OPEC ‘set to roll over supply deal, discuss deeper oil curbs’-4.4%
• Dec 27, 2016Venezuela Aims to Cut 95,000 Barrels Per Day of Crude Output in OPEC Deal+1.3%

After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.

• Dec 6, 2019OPEC, allies to lower oil output 500,000 barrels more+1.3%
• Jul 29, 2022Oil up over $2 per barrel as hopes fade for OPEC+ supply boost | Reuters-8.0%
• Nov 4, 2021Opec+ to increase output by 400,000 bpd despite US pressure for more oil supply | The National+0.5%
• Jun 28, 2019Arab News | OPEC ‘set to roll over supply deal, discuss deeper oil curbs’-3.5%
• Dec 27, 2016Venezuela Aims to Cut 95,000 Barrels Per Day of Crude Output in OPEC Deal+0.0%