Pause in yuan's rise to persist through November 3 US election

After 169 past neutral macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.2%), and -0.0% over 20.

• Jan 20, 2025CNY at a glance: A surprise post-US election outperformer | ING THINK-1.0%
• Aug 30, 2024China’s yuan volatility rising on interest rates, US presidential election: Goldman | South China Morning Post-0.1%
• Oct 7, 2024US election, jobs data to pressure China’s yuan as stimulus shores it up: analysts | South China Morning Post+0.7%
• Nov 1, 2019No major changes in the yuan’s exchange rate since August-0.9%
• Nov 4, 2024Yuan bounces as traders brace for US election volatility - Markets - Business Recorder+0.8%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jan 20, 2025CNY at a glance: A surprise post-US election outperformer | ING THINK-1.1%
• Nov 10, 2016Donald Trump's win in US presidential election sends China yuan to six-year low against dollar+1.9%
• Mar 1, 2024JPY/USD Yen Weakens Through 150 Per Dollar, Raising Intervention Risk-0.8%
• Feb 13, 2024US dollar rises to three-month high after inflation data, surges past 150 yen+0.1%
• Sep 8, 2023Why the US Fed's interest rate pause is a win for dollar bulls | The National-0.6%