
The yuan touched a two-week high on Monday ahead of the US election, with onshore opening at 7.1040 per dollar. One-week offshore implied volatility reached its highest since 2015, and the currency had its largest monthly drop in over a year in October.
Traders expect a Trump win could bring higher tariffs on Chinese goods, which would pressure the yuan and feed through to Chinese demand for feed commodities priced in dollars.
After 169 past neutral macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.2%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.