Oil majors are planning to convert California refineries to renewable diesel and other biofuels production. The shift is linked to the state's Low Carbon Fuel Standard and an expected long-term decline in petroleum fuel consumption, and momentum is building for a national LCFS.
Conversion of refinery capacity to renewable diesel adds demand for vegetable oil feedstocks such as soybean oil. The national LCFS push could widen that demand beyond California.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.