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Congress renewed a $1 per gallon biodiesel tax credit after it lapsed for two years, but the credit is set to expire again in 2022. US biodiesel output has fallen year on year every month since June, with ten plants closing in 2019.
Weak biodiesel production reduces domestic soybean oil and animal fat demand, pressuring soybean oil prices, while the uncertain post-2022 policy outlook weighs on investment.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.