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The Biden administration set federal biomass-based diesel quotas of 2.82 billion gallons for 2023, up 2.2% from 2022. Soybean oil dropped 7% in Chicago to its daily limit after the rule was released.
Quotas below producer expectations weaken the demand outlook for soybean oil used as biofuel feedstock. The sharp selloff shows the price pressure is bearish.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.