
A Kansas State University study using USDA Risk Management Agency data finds drought and heat are the main causes of crop yield losses. A 1.8 degree Fahrenheit temperature rise would raise yield risk by 32% for corn and 11% for soybeans.
Kansas is more exposed than other regions to warming.
Higher climate-driven yield risk in Plains production supports a longer-term premium for corn and soybeans, but the study is a projection and does not change current supply estimates.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.