
New South Wales is forecast to produce a record 17.6 million tonnes of winter crop, including 12.2 million tonnes of wheat. Victoria's winter crop is expected at 9.3 million tonnes, a 24% year-on-year rise, with a record 4.7 million tonnes of wheat.
ABARES' national estimate of 51.5 million tonnes is 7.4% above its September forecast.
Record eastern state crops add substantial wheat and canola supply to the market, which pressures export and feed grain prices. The larger harvest reduces reliance on imported feed.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.