
ABARES trimmed Australia's winter crop by only 100,000t from its September estimate to 55.1Mt, a 16% year-on-year increase and the fifth largest on record. Queensland is set for a record 3.6Mt crop and NSW for its second largest at 19.1Mt, offsetting frost and dryness losses in the south.
A large Australian winter crop keeps export supply ample and limits upside for wheat and barley prices. The southern shortfalls are offset by northern production.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.