
ABARES modelling projects Australia's winter crop at 55 million tonnes, a 17% year-on-year increase, with wheat at 31.8 Mt and barley at 12.2 Mt. Improved conditions in northern cropping regions and Western Australia drive the upgrade, while Victoria and South Australia face moisture deficits.
A much larger Australian winter crop increases export supply of wheat and barley, which tends to pressure world feed grain prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.