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ABARES' September crop report raised the Australian winter crop estimate to 62Mt, up 11% (6.4Mt) since June and 2% year on year. Big gains in South Australia (up 49%) and Victoria (up 14%) drove the revision, and WA yield estimates rose 15% to 23.9Mt.
Wheat is forecast at 33.8Mt, barley at 14.6Mt and canola at 6.4Mt.
Larger Australian supply in the 2025-26 season adds export competition for wheat, barley and canola products, which supports bearish price pressure in global feed markets.
farmonline.com.auGregor HeardSep 5, 2025After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
