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ABARES' June quarter Agricultural Commodities Report forecasts the value of Australian crop production to hold at $30 billion in 2019-20, weighed down by lower world prices for wheat and barley. Better rainfall in south-eastern Australia and central Queensland has produced a stronger winter crop start than last year, with grain production forecast up 20% to 36.4 Mt.
The China–US trade dispute is flagged as a key downside risk to export forecasts.
A recovery in Australian output after drought adds supply to export markets while lower world wheat and barley prices reduce feed grain values. The trade dispute could weaken Chinese import demand for agricultural goods.
graincentral.comJun 17, 2019After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
