
ABARES raised the 2024-25 winter crop estimate to 59.8 million tonnes, citing receival data that showed better-than-expected yields. Wheat production is put at 34.1 million tonnes, up 31% year on year, and barley at 13.3 million.
Canola fell 2% to 5.9 million tonnes on lower planted area.
Higher Australian wheat and barley output increases global export supply and can weigh on grain prices. Lower canola output provides limited support to oilseed meal values.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.