
The latest USDA report raised 2020 global wheat production by 1.28 million tonnes to 773.66 million, while Chinese wheat imports were raised to 8.5 million tonnes. Russia has confirmed export tariffs of €25 per tonne for the 15 February to 30 June period, after earlier setting export quotas of 17.5 million tonnes.
The tariffs are intended to contain domestic prices as the rouble weakens.
Russian export tariffs make its wheat less competitive on world markets, reducing export flow and supporting prices outside Russia. Higher Chinese import demand adds further support.
After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.