
The Drought Monitor shows 67% of the United States under drought, with 39.5% of the Midwest affected. Nearly 40% of the winter wheat crop is in drought, and the High Plains are almost fully covered.
Dry conditions in winter wheat areas and the High Plains raise the risk of lower wheat output and tighter feed grain supplies if dryness persists into spring.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.