
Australian wheat rallied 20 percent in July after the country's driest July since 2002 and fifth-warmest on record. Global wheat output is set to fall to a three-year low as drought hits Australia and crop cuts occur in Europe, the Black Sea and Russia.
Drought in the largest southern hemisphere exporter and weaker European and Black Sea crops reduce export supplies and support wheat and feed barley prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.