ECB in ‘Currency War’ Over Euro, Commerzbank Strategist Says

After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 24, 2025ECB's Rehn says central bank may need to lower interest rates, Bloomberg News reports-0.0%
• Jun 9, 2022Euro Traders Signal Skepticism Over ECB’s Rate-Hike Plans - Bloomberg-3.3%
• Mar 28, 2024Currency Markets: A Decline in the Euro to Parity With the Dollar Beckons - Bloomberg+0.1%
• Jun 28, 2026Euro’s Run Looks Over as Wall Street Targets Slide Toward $1.10 - Bloomberg+0.2%
• Nov 12, 2024(EUR/USD) Euro Parity With Dollar Is the Big New Call by Currency Analysts - Bloomberg-1.2%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Mar 28, 2024Currency Markets: A Decline in the Euro to Parity With the Dollar Beckons - Bloomberg+0.0%
• Jun 28, 2026Euro’s Run Looks Over as Wall Street Targets Slide Toward $1.10 - Bloomberg-0.0%
• Jun 18, 2021Goldman’s Currie Says Buy Commodities Dip, Bull Case Intact - Bloomberg-0.2%
• Sep 17, 2025Dollar Boost From Fed to Weigh on Asian Currencies, Analysts Say - Bloomberg+0.4%
• Apr 9, 2024ECB-Fed Rates Split Ignites Talk of Euro Sliding to Dollar Parity - Bloomberg+1.4%