Reuters columnist Mike Dolan reported that the US dollar rebounded in early January 2021 despite most consensus trades rallying, helped by rising Treasury yields and bets on fiscal stimulus after Democrats won Georgia Senate seats. Several banks, including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, moved from negative to neutral dollar views.
A firmer dollar and higher US yields reduce the appeal of dollar-priced commodities and can pressure grain and oilseed prices, although stimulus expectations partly offset this.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.