
The International Energy Agency cut its 2021 global oil demand forecast, now expecting demand to recover by 5.5 million b/d to 96.6 million b/d. The downgrade reflects renewed Covid-19 lockdowns in Europe and parts of China.
Weaker expected fuel demand is bearish for crude and diesel prices, which lowers transport and processing costs. The lockdowns also weigh on broader demand for animal protein and feed.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 86 past bearish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.