
A Farm Futures January 2021 survey projects 2020 U.S. soybean yield at 49.9 bpa, below USDA's 50.7 bpa. The survey puts 2020/21 ending soybean stocks near 108 million bushels, a stocks-to-use ratio of 2.4%, which would be the tightest on record.
Record-tight soybean stocks would force demand rationing among crushers and livestock feeders and support soybean meal and soybean prices. The survey is not an official USDA figure.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.