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Latin American currencies have had a weak start to 2021, with Argentina and Brazil seeing the deepest depreciations. Scotiabank forecasts broadly stronger nominal exchange rates for the region over the longer term.
It sees the Mexican peso and Brazilian real as likely to benefit from positive policy developments and economic surprises.
A stronger real and peso would lower the local-currency cost of imported feed ingredients for Brazilian and Mexican buyers, while a weaker currency raises it. The view is a medium-term macro outlook rather than a near-term supply shock.
scotiabank.comFeb 13, 2021Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
