◂ Event Timeline

Sep 11, 2023MACROBrazil

Latam FX Talking: Large easing cycles in Brazil and Chile

Brazil and Chile have both started large monetary easing cycles, and Brazil's second-quarter GDP beat expectations at 0.9% QoQ. USD/BRL was trading near 4.98 with a mildly bearish one-month bias, and analysts expected about 155bp of Brazilian easing by year-end.

WHY IT MATTERS

Expected BRL stability on high real rates would keep Brazilian export prices competitive but less cheap, a modest factor for soybean meal and corn export pricing.

AFFECTSBrazilian Real (BRL per USD)▼

SOURCE
think.ing.comChris TurnerSep 11, 2023

Price reaction & history

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)▼bearishSO FAR1d -0.8%5d -2.2%20d +3.6%

After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.

Aug 14, 2023Latam FX Talking: Full steam ahead with easing cycles | articles | ING THINK+1.4%
Dec 13, 2022Latam FX: Fiscal fundamentals | articles | ING THINK-0.5%
Jul 10, 2024Latam FX Talking: Making the most of a short-lived rebound | articles | ING THINK+0.5%
Sep 15, 2025Latam FX Talking: Carry trade remains the dominant theme | articles | ING THINK-0.5%
Apr 11, 2023Latam FX Talking: Temporary setback for the Mexican peso | articles | ING THINK-2.7%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) USDBRL · GP ▸

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