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ING analysts see the Brazilian real holding near 5.00 per dollar after a new fiscal framework, while the Mexican peso rally has stalled around 18.00. They expect USD/MXN to drift toward 18.20 over the next month.
A firmer real makes Brazilian soybean and corn exports less competitive in dollar terms, which can ease upward pressure on global oilseed and corn prices; the outlook is a mild tailwind for US exports.
think.ing.comChris TurnerApr 11, 2023After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
